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Sentiment / Socionomics
The Daily Sentiment Index in %BULLS as of September 29th (Thursday's Close)

Instrument % BULLS - RAW 5 DMA 10 DMA 21 DMA
T-Bonds 65.0 59.0 47.8 48.7
T-Notes 63.0 61.4 58.5 57.5
EuroDollars 68.0 67.6 64.8 62.7
S&P 55.0 57.8 54.4 57.0
Nasdaq 47.0 49.6 46.3 50.6
Vix 18.0 13.8 15.3 18.6
CHF 59.0 55.8 51.3 49.8
Euro 50.0 50.4 46.9 44.8
JPY 75.0 79.0 74.9 67.1
GBP 19.0 21.2 20.0 25.0
CAD 59.0 59.2 59.1 63.9
AUD 71.0 71.4 66.5 66.4
NZD 72.0 75.0 77.3 78.5
DXY 33.0 28.6 31.5 33.4
MXN 16.0 14.0 12.1 13.4
Crude 63.0 49.6 45.0 39.7
Heating Oil 42.0 33.8 32.6 33.3
RBOB Gasoline 35.0 29.6 29.7 28.8
Nat Gas 50.0 53.4 59.4 57.1
Gold 15.0 18.4 18.4 21.9
Silver 34.0 37.4 40.8 43.7
Platinum 51.0 49.8 48.6 52.0
Palladium 80.0 77.2 73.5 68.8
Copper 26.0 26.2 27.6 26.1
Corn 16.0 18.0 22.8 23.1
Wheat 16.0 18.0 20.7 19.6
Oats 22.0 20.2 19.1 18.9
Soybean 16.0 14.4 21.7 20.6
Soybean Oil 53.0 51.4 53.1 50.4
Soybean Meal 12.0 10.8 13.2 13.7
OJ 81.0 86.2 88.0 87.4
Coffee 62.0 65.8 69.7 69.5
Cocoa 10.0 16.4 16.9 20.5
Sugar 83.0 86.0 84.9 71.8
Lumber 85.0 83.0 78.9 69.4
Cotton 42.0 51.2 53.7 47.3
Live Cattle 8.0 19.6 28.0 22.9
Lean Hogs 12.0 9.6 11.7 17.8
CRB Index 52.0 46.0 41.8 36.8
Nikkei 65.0 65.4 63.3 67.6
The contrary investor studies crowd behavior in the stock market and aims to profit from particular conditions where investors act on their emotions rather than reason. Such extremes of fear and greed are often seen at major market turning points, providing the astute contrarian with opportunities to both enter and exit the market. The DSI or Daily Sentiment Index is a proprietary sentiment indicator from MBH Commodities in Chicago. The DSI shouldn’t be used as the start and end of a trading plan; Market sentiment is a component to a trade set-up / program. In other words, it is not a direct nor specific call to action but rather a sentiment based indicator that alerts traders to potential action - a timing trigger.
What's New
<[S&P]> Major Macro Market Brief: S&P ('Flat-Line' Since Early July > CLEAR! ZAP! [S&P]> 09/30/2016 9:30AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 09/30/2016 6:10AM
<[DB]> '2Big2Fail' 'DB' In '5th' Environment / Down = We Say 'Maturing', TAG Expects 'X" To Contain <[DB]> 09/29/2016 1:05PM
<{CL}> Post O.P.E.C. Crude Oil Update (Steady As She Goes Medium Term IN NEW Range Between 'X' & 'X') <{CL}> 09/29/2016 12:28PM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Update: ¥EN (We're SHORT, Leaning On 100+-1¥ Danger Zone) - Misc FX (Kiwi - GBP/AUD) USD/CHF (On Radar. Too Tight, UNtenable) <[MMM]> 09/29/2016 10:19AM
<{§}> 'FX' aka The Land Of Opportunity: - ¥EN (TAG Wants To Get Short ¥) - USD/CNH (TAG Remains Long, BACK On Radar) <{§}> 09/28/2016 10:43AM
<[MMM]> WITH ZOOMable / Enlargable CHARTS - Macro Market Update: Equities (3 Month Standstill S&P, Like Over DAX / EuroStoxx) - Fresh MT Charts Of DAX / E-Stoxx / Nikkei / SHCOMP <[MMM]> 09/28/2016 9:42AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 09/28/2016 6:07AM
<{§}> Foreign Exchange One-Off: GBPAUD (We're Flipping Again, From Bear At 1.79 / 1.80 (-9 big figures+) To NT BULL Against 'X' - FIRM RISK ) - USD/CAD & Kiwi NZD/USD<{§}> 09/27/2016 1:28PM
<{§}> Miscellaneous FX (MXN/JPY Short Exited To FLAT - EUR/SEK BreakOut - Kiwi - CAD) & Spot Gold (Do Not ASSume, Paramters Tighten Further) <{§}> 09/27/2016 11:43AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Update: Fixed Inc (Stopped TYZ6 -15/32nds DBZ6 -107 Ticks, Reducing / Exiting USZ6) <[MMM]> 09/27/2016 9:28AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Brief: Misc FX (EURO / YEN / MXN/JPY Tighten Profit-Protection - WATCH USD/CAD Aka The Truth? At 'X' For UPSDside) - Fixed Income (Beds Made, TYZ 131-18+ Lowers F.I. Confidence - %s30s) <[MMM]> 09/26/2016 10:44AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Brief: S&P (Still Short 1/2 'SPY' For NT Downside - Nikkei Turns Down From TAG Resistance >14,864*?) <[MMM]> 09/26/2016 9:31AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 09/26/2016 8:00AM
<{FX}> Brief: GBP/AUD (Cover, Look For Low) - Kiwi Aka NZD/USD (NEW SHORT, We've Added, Lowered trailing Stoploss - Oh Man)<{FX}>es 09/23/2016 9:50AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Musings, Happy FriPhiDay: Fixed Inc (Reloaded USZ & NEW TYZ SHORT, Stops AT 'X') - FX (Misc) - Gold (Nice $38 'Pop', Paramaters Tighten, Stay Ready) - Crude Oil (+$3 From NT Range Base) [MMM]> 09/23/2016 9:18AM
<{FX}> SOS = Same Old Sh!t - FX Brief, The Good The Bad The Fugly <{FX}> 09/22/2016 11:35AM
<[MMM]> Major Market Update: MXN/JPY (FX - UGH. Trim Protect Rebuild Repeat) S&P (NT Bear Is A Bust, Update) - Fixed Income (USZ6 Up To Resistance, TYZ 131-18+ Matters, 5s30s -13 bps? Temp Too Cheap) Crude Oil (+$2.50 On Cue, New Range) <[MMM]> 09/22/2016 10:27AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 09/22/2016 8:45AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Brief Pre FED / 'Ol Yeller Y Los Federales': Post B.O.J. 'Japan Inc' Analysis <[MMM]> 09/21/2016 10:32AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 09/21/2016 6:29AM
"Vox Populi" - The Voice of the People

Well, at least the Libertarian candidate is a solid individual


Detach from the outcome ~  Relinquish your rigid attachment to a specific result and live in the wisdom of uncertainty. Attachment is based on fear and insecurity, while detachment is based on the unquestioning belief in the power of your true Self. Intend for everything to work out as it should, then let go and allow opportunities and openings to come your way.


Socionomics (TAG followers for 5+ years) - Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society's mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the OPPOSITE: that social mood determines the character of social events. The events of history - such as investment booms ands busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war - are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Soconomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society's aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand...

To survive, we need a temperate client to live within. DEFLATION or INFLATION can kill an economy. Empires do not die by HYPERINFLATION – that is reserved for the fringe. When an empire dies, it historically has ALWAYS been by DEFLATION. How. Real wealth is driven from the ABOVEGROUND economy into the UNDERGROUND economy where it is hoarded and tucked away. This is why we find hoards of Roman coins. This reduces the VELOCITY of money and commerce is reduced. This is ALWAYS AND WITHOUT EXCEPTION how empires die. This is why there was scrip issued in the United States during the Great Depression. The VELOCITY of money came to a halt. The British Empire did not die of HYPERINFLATION. The pound collapsed in value. It did not inflate into oblivion. The British Empire simply rolled over and died. The decline of the sterling silver penny of England was no different a path than the decline and fall of Rome. The United States will follow the same path - Martin Armstrong

“Capitalism was an economic system in which the private sector drove the economic process through saving, capital accumulation, and investment. The government’s role was very limited. The United States has not had that kind of economic system for decades… Almost all the major industries are subsidized in one way or the other by the government and almost half the households receive some kind of government assistance… the economic system is no longer driven by savings and investment. Instead, it is driven by borrowing and consumption. This is not capitalism. Market forces no longer drive the economy. The current system is government- directed, but not planned… deficit spending and fiat money have allowed the government to satisfy all those competing demands for more than a generation.”– Richard Duncan

A TAG favorite ~ La Desiderata ~

Go placidly amidst the noise and haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence. As far as possible without surrender be on good terms with all persons. Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.

Avoid loud and aggressive persons, they are vexatious to the spirit. If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain or bitter; for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.

Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans. Keep interested in your own career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.

Exercise caution in your business affairs; for the world is full of trickery. But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals; and everywhere life is full of heroism.

Be yourself. Especially, do not feign affection. Neither be cynical about love; for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment it is as perennial as the grass.

Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth. Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.

Beyond a wholesome discipline, be gentle with yourself. You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here.

And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be, and whatever your labours and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life keep peace with your soul. With all its shams, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful.

Strive to be happy.


So it is with monetary debasement, as Keynes understood deeply (so deeply, in fact, that it?s ironic so many of today's crude Keynesians support QE so enthusiastically). In 1921 he said:

By a continuing process of inflation, Governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some …. Those to whom the system brings windfalls …. become “profiteers” who are the object of the hatred … the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery .. Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose


Hayek has made the difference between the effects of deflation and inflation crystal-clear: “… but it is not that certain that in the long run deflation is more harmful than inflation. Because moderate inflation is always pleasant as and when it is happening, whereas deflation is direct and painful. There is no need to take precaution against a situation whose unpleasant effects can be felt immediately and sharply; however, precaution is necessary for a measure that is immediately pleasant or helps alleviate problems but that entails a much more substantial damage which can only be felt later. The difference is that in case of inflation, the pleasant surprise comes first and is followed by the reaction later, whereas in case of deflation the first effect on business activity is depressive.” ~~ F.A. Hayek, “Verfassung der Freiheit” (The Constitution of Liberty), seen in (Problems of the established central bank system – free banking as alternative?), Wolf von Laer


“By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another’s, and each obeying its own law ... The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain