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Sentiment / Socionomics
The Daily Sentiment Index in %BULLS as of December 1st (Thursday's Close)

Instrument % BULLS - RAW 5 DMA 10 DMA 21 DMA
T-Bonds 9.0 15.0 13.0 12.8
T-Notes 9.0 13.0 13.3 23.3
EuroDollars 52.0 53.4 54.3 57.3
S&P 50.0 58.4 55.7 42.8
Nasdaq 44.0 55.2 52.7 39.5
Vix 30.0 20.8 16.9 22.4
CHF 16.0 12.8 11.6 23.6
Euro 23.0 19.6 14.6 18.5
JPY 9.0 8.6 8.3 22.7
GBP 31.0 28.2 26.9 28.7
CAD 55.0 48.6 45.7 45.0
AUD 51.0 53.0 48.7 60.4
NZD 57.0 56.8 55.3 64.4
DXY 83.0 85.2 87.5 76.7
MXN 30.0 31.6 29.8 30.7
Crude 58.0 43.6 44.9 38.5
Heating Oil 77.0 62.8 61.5 52.6
RBOB Gasoline 63.0 41.4 35.3 26.7
Nat Gas 71.0 61.0 52.6 39.8
Gold 11.0 10.6 9.5 16.1
Silver 14.0 13.0 10.3 18.2
Platinum 16.0 13.8 17.8 29.8
Palladium 75.0 79.2 75.3 63.9
Copper 79.0 82.8 77.7 66.6
Corn 32.0 43.4 47.7 45.0
Wheat 13.0 22.6 30.0 27.1
Oats 62.0 62.4 69.6 72.3
Soybean 64.0 68.0 62.6 49.1
Soybean Oil 80.0 73.2 71.3 66.8
Soybean Meal 44.0 49.8 48.2 41.7
OJ 83.0 75.2 71.6 71.2
Coffee 34.0 45.6 53.0 64.4
Cocoa 13.0 12.8 14.8 12.7
Sugar 25.0 31.0 30.9 40.0
Lumber 63.0 64.8 62.9 59.3
Cotton 70.0 73.4 75.8 66.1
Live Cattle 75.0 80.0 79.4 64.8
Lean Hogs 63.0 67.8 65.1 56.7
CRB Index 60.0 49.6 49.5 43.0
Nikkei 79.0 82.4 85.2 77.5
The contrary investor studies crowd behavior in the stock market and aims to profit from particular conditions where investors act on their emotions rather than reason. Such extremes of fear and greed are often seen at major market turning points, providing the astute contrarian with opportunities to both enter and exit the market. The DSI or Daily Sentiment Index is a proprietary sentiment indicator from MBH Commodities in Chicago. The DSI shouldn’t be used as the start and end of a trading plan; Market sentiment is a component to a trade set-up / program. In other words, it is not a direct nor specific call to action but rather a sentiment based indicator that alerts traders to potential action - a timing trigger.
What's New
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Micro Term Brief: What TAG Is Watching In FX Post N.F.P. / Pre Renzi-Italia Ref <[MMM]> 12/02/2016 9:24AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 12/02/2016 8:02AM
<{MMM}> Major Macro Market Brief: CL Brief Comment (ACTION / REACTION Expected At 52+- CLF 54+- CLH) - DE10YY / BUNDs (Crazy Set-Up, Careful BOND Bears) - US5s30s Curve (.7.5 Bps, TAG likes mid 130's Ag 115) <{MMM}> 12/01/2016 12:18PM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Brief: 'DXY' US Dollar index - S&P & Nikkei (UGH/ZZZ - NKC Bull Above 17,500+-100) Crude Oil (Sense Of Urgency 52+ CLF / 54+ CLH SUSTAINED) - Spot Gold (Better Buyer, Difficult To Reconcile <[MMM]> 12/01/2016 10:52AM
<{FX}> Miscellaneous FX aka The Land Of Opportunity, TAG Remains "UN-Apologetic USD - DXY BULLs" From Majors To Minors Some In Between, 'zzzz' INR and ILS Too <{FX}> 11/30/2016 1:40PM
<{%}> Fixed Inc Brief: 'TBT' (LONG, 'Hedge' S/loss Above 41.26+ High, Bids-To-Cover Remain in 38's / 37's) - 5s30s (NEW Tactical Steepener Hanging In There +120 Avg Entry) - TYH7 (NEW Levels, 122-12/122-02 Target Next) 11/30/2016 11:25AM
<{§}> Quick Crude Comment - FX aka The Land of Opportunity: From DXY - EURO To USD/JPY To GBP Ag USD & EUR To MXN To SGD - KRW - CNH (MT Target Satisfied USD/CNH, 1/4th Left) <{§}> 11/29/2016 12:00PM
<[MMM]> Fixed Income Update: 'Timing' / 'Pause' Happening? NFP Friday / Renzi Weekend... TAG's Hedged LONG 'TBT' (Sorta Working) Also DE10YY and BTPs = Italian 10 YY<[MMM]> 11/28/2016 1:01PM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Update: Some / Marginal Post Election Run 'Pause' - S&P / Nikkei / SHCOMP (Still Asia Over U.S. Over EuroLand) <[MMM]> 11/28/2016 10:50AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 11/28/2016 7:09AM
<{§}> Crude Oil / CLH7 Brief: Recent Rise 3-Waves Up = 'Corrective', MT 52+ IMPRESSES > 55/56 > 63+-2. Until Then? <{§}> 11/25/2016 2:41PM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Update: USD- DXY (Steady As She Goes) - US5YY (UPside Yield Doorway Open To 'X', Sell FV Rallies) - 'TBT' (Strategic LONG Hedged Temp) - EURO Bear (Good News MT) - Crude Oil - <[MMM]> 11/25/2016 11:14AM
<{¥}> Medium Term USD/JPY Outlook - FOMO? No. Can't. +10¥ To +15¥ From TAG's Danger Zone 100+-1¥ Approaching MT Range Top 116+-2¥ & Cloud Cover Weekly <{¥}> 11/23/2016 2:19PM
<{MMM}> Major Macro Market Brief: Miscellaneous MMMs, From US5YY - TY To Next Attraction 124-28+-, Gold To Nikkei To 5s30s Curve To DE10YY To YEN AG USD & EUR To AUD/CAD & EUR/CAD 11/23/2016 12:14PM
<{§}> 'MMM' - US5YY Knocking On The Same-O MT 'UPside Doorway' - Crude Oil / CLH7: +$6.33 To $50.82, MT 52 / 54 To Cap For NOW, Let's Prepare, Do Not Assume <{§}> 11/23/2016 9:41AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 11/23/2016 7:17AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Brief: S&P (?) - Crude Oil (CLH7 +$6.42, MT 52 / 54 Tough Res.) - Fixed Inc (5s30s, Micro Range Base - Japan 10s & 30s - DE10YY Down -18 bps) <[MMM]> 11/22/2016 10:15AM
<{§}> More 'MMM', Crude Oil Brief, More / Misc. FX, Cable 'Pop' = Sell Higher, CAD Long Ag AUD and EUR Working, Misc <{§}> 11/21/2016 2:50PM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Update: 'Timing' Warns Of Post Election 'Pause' - S&P (Limited Upside / Pause) Fixed Inc ('Pause' TY & US, 5s30s Tracking Well) FX ('Trimmed' Prized USD LONG, Prepare For Pullback) - (Crude Oil) <[MMM]> 11/21/2016 10:43AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Update: FX The Land Of Opportunity (TAG Remains M.T. UN-Apologetic USD - DXY BULLs, NT 'Trimming' Her & There) Crude & Gold Too<[MMM]> 11/18/2016 3:18PM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Update: 'Timing' Warns Of Post Election 'Pause' - S&P (HoHum, Limited Upside) Fixed Inc (Pause TY & US, 5s30s Tracking Well) FX ('Trimmed' Prized USD - DXY LONGs, NEW Short Cable 1.3500 Working, Stop To Breakeven) <[MMM]> 11/18/2016 10:23AM
"Vox Populi" - The Voice of the People



TAG 'fav'  'Bahramji', he's our House Kool Kat


Detach from the outcome ~  Relinquish your rigid attachment to a specific result and live in the wisdom of uncertainty. Attachment is based on fear and insecurity, while detachment is based on the unquestioning belief in the power of your true Self. Intend for everything to work out as it should, then let go and allow opportunities and openings to come your way.
A TAG favorite ~ La Desiderata ~

Go placidly amidst the noise and haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence. As far as possible without surrender be on good terms with all persons. Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.

Avoid loud and aggressive persons, they are vexatious to the spirit. If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain or bitter; for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.

Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans. Keep interested in your own career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.

Exercise caution in your business affairs; for the world is full of trickery. But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals; and everywhere life is full of heroism.

Be yourself. Especially, do not feign affection. Neither be cynical about love; for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment it is as perennial as the grass.

Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth. Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.

Beyond a wholesome discipline, be gentle with yourself. You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here.

And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be, and whatever your labours and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life keep peace with your soul. With all its shams, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful.

Strive to be happy.


Socionomics - Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society's mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the OPPOSITE: that social mood determines the character of social events. The events of history - such as investment booms ands busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war - are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Soconomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society's aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand...

To survive, we need a temperate client to live within. DEFLATION or INFLATION can kill an economy. Empires do not die by HYPERINFLATION – that is reserved for the fringe. When an empire dies, it historically has ALWAYS been by DEFLATION. How. Real wealth is driven from the ABOVEGROUND economy into the UNDERGROUND economy where it is hoarded and tucked away. This is why we find hoards of Roman coins. This reduces the VELOCITY of money and commerce is reduced. This is ALWAYS AND WITHOUT EXCEPTION how empires die. This is why there was scrip issued in the United States during the Great Depression. The VELOCITY of money came to a halt. The British Empire did not die of HYPERINFLATION. The pound collapsed in value. It did not inflate into oblivion. The British Empire simply rolled over and died. The decline of the sterling silver penny of England was no different a path than the decline and fall of Rome. The United States will follow the same path - Martin Armstrong

“Capitalism was an economic system in which the private sector drove the economic process through saving, capital accumulation, and investment. The government’s role was very limited. The United States has not had that kind of economic system for decades… Almost all the major industries are subsidized in one way or the other by the government and almost half the households receive some kind of government assistance… the economic system is no longer driven by savings and investment. Instead, it is driven by borrowing and consumption. This is not capitalism. Market forces no longer drive the economy. The current system is government- directed, but not planned… deficit spending and fiat money have allowed the government to satisfy all those competing demands for more than a generation.”– Richard Dunca

So it is with monetary debasement, as Keynes understood deeply (so deeply, in fact, that it?s ironic so many of today's crude Keynesians support QE so enthusiastically). In 1921 he said:

By a continuing process of inflation, Governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some …. Those to whom the system brings windfalls …. become “profiteers” who are the object of the hatred … the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery .. Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose

Hayek has made the difference between the effects of deflation and inflation crystal-clear: “… but it is not that certain that in the long run deflation is more harmful than inflation. Because moderate inflation is always pleasant as and when it is happening, whereas deflation is direct and painful. There is no need to take precaution against a situation whose unpleasant effects can be felt immediately and sharply; however, precaution is necessary for a measure that is immediately pleasant or helps alleviate problems but that entails a much more substantial damage which can only be felt later. The difference is that in case of inflation, the pleasant surprise comes first and is followed by the reaction later, whereas in case of deflation the first effect on business activity is depressive.” ~~ F.A. Hayek, “Verfassung der Freiheit” (The Constitution of Liberty), seen in (Problems of the established central bank system – free banking as alternative?), Wolf von Laer


“By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another’s, and each obeying its own law ... The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain