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Sentiment / Socionomics
The Daily Sentiment Index in %BULLS as of July 26th (Wednesday's Close)

Instrument % BULLS - RAW 5 DMA 10 DMA 21 DMA
T-Bonds 45.0 48.0 47.9 48.4
T-Notes 53.0 54.0 54.6 52.2
EuroDollars 44.0 42.4 42.2 42.2
S&P 77.0 79.2 80.1 71.3
Nasdaq 74.0 76.0 75.4 65.1
Vix 13.0 10.6 10.0 14.8
CHF 75.0 82.8 81.9 81.5
Euro 84.0 82.8 82.3 83.5
JPY 59.0 57.2 54.1 47.8
GBP 80.0 77.6 76.5 74.8
CAD 92.0 88.6 87.0 81.5
AUD 86.0 82.6 83.5 77.8
NZD 82.0 79.0 78.0 74.2
DXY 8.0 9.0 11.7 17.0
MXN 78.0 78.2 80.4 73.3
Crude 48.0 36.8 35.9 32.7
Heating Oil 43.0 36.4 35.1 32.9
RBOB Gasoline 35.0 28.8 29.2 29.5
Nat Gas 30.0 30.8 32.3 32.9
Gold 34.0 32.0 29.2 22.3
Silver 36.0 32.6 29.1 22.4
Platinum 38.0 35.6 34.8 33.8
Palladium 83.0 74.4 73.0 68.7
Copper 91.0 81.0 75.7 70.1
Corn 39.0 43.4 48.2 52.3
Wheat 31.0 35.8 42.5 57.3
Oats 63.0 66.0 68.0 69.1
Soybean 42.0 47.4 52.6 54.1
Soybean Oil 47.0 47.6 49.2 47.3
Soybean Meal 30.0 32.6 35.2 34.8
OJ 35.0 29.2 23.5 25.7
Coffee 42.0 43.0 43.2 37.2
Cocoa 19.0 22.6 22.0 20.2
Sugar 33.0 32.0 32.4 27.6
Lumber 60.0 67.6 68.5 56.7
Cotton 37.0 39.0 38.4 38.6
Live Cattle 75.0 74.6 76.8 75.3
Lean Hogs 73.0 71.4 71.8 79.0
CRB Index 74.0 66.0 64.6 62.9
Nikkei 45.0 46.0 47.8 50.0
The contrary investor studies crowd behavior in the stock market and aims to profit from particular conditions where investors act on their emotions rather than reason. Such extremes of fear and greed are often seen at major market turning points, providing the astute contrarian with opportunities to both enter and exit the market. The DSI or Daily Sentiment Index is a proprietary sentiment indicator from MBH Commodities in Chicago. The DSI shouldn’t be used as the start and end of a trading plan; Market sentiment is a component to a trade set-up / program. In other words, it is not a direct nor specific call to action but rather a sentiment based indicator that alerts traders to potential action - a timing trigger.
What's New
<[MMM]> More 'MMM', Briefly... USU7 Micro Term Update (Profit Taking Micro Term Advised) - US5s30s Curve (96+-4 to 130+-4) - AUD (vs USD, CHF, Maybe NOK, NOK/SEK We Like) 07/27/2017 2:13PM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Brief: S&P & Nikkei (Steady As She GoesZZZ) - USU7 Micro Term - USD/CNH (Profit-Taking Into Weakness) - <[MMM]> 07/27/2017 9:41AM
<{FX}> USD/CNH Brief: Working 'Bids-To-Cover' At 'X' Against NEW TIGHT TRAILING STOPLOSS At 'X'? <{FX}> 07/26/2017 5:36PM
<[MMM]> 'CL' Crude Oil (CLU7 Rises To Target #1, TAG Shifts To Seller / Profit-Taker) - USU7 (Brief Update, Micro-5 Waves From 154-31 High Maturing At 'X', Bounce Follows) - YEN (Update Ag USD and EUR aka Eye Gouger) <[MMM]> 07/26/2017 1:52PM
<{%}> Fixed Income Update Non-U.S. : DE10YY / BUNDs (YIELD BULL Story Tracking) - 'TAS' (Trans Atlantic Spread +7 Wider From 170) - IT10YY (What Does 2.42%+ / 2.45%+ Bring?) - UK Gilts (Better Bears, Yields Higher) <{%}> 07/26/2017 11:11AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 07/26/2017 6:57AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Brief: S&P (Steady As She Goes...We're SHORT) - Nikkei (UN-Tenable Tight Range, Ready?) - FX (Focus On EUR/YEN 128.50- / 130.75+, Show Us The Way) - Fixed Inc (Flat & Happy, BUNDs Nearly 50% Back) <[MMM]> 07/24/2017 12:31PM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 07/24/2017 6:06AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Brief: S&P (NT Bear 'Bed' Is Made, We're In It Using 2485 / 2495 As Risk Hatch) - BUNDs / DE10YY (BEAR To Flat This Week, An UPDATE +225 Ticks From Low) - FX (YEN House Of Pain?!) <[MMM]> 07/21/2017 11:30AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 07/21/2017 7:05AM
<{CL}> Crude Oil Brief (S&P Too, Range Top Test) - 'CLU7' To New Highs, Expected, TAG Looks For NT Top At 'X' & Offer Medium Term Pivotal Zone <{CL}> 07/20/2017 10:06AM
<{FX}> Misc FX, From Nuts To Soup (S&P too), YEN Add To MXN To Scandies (We've Flipped From NOK Bears To Bulls, Like NOK/SEK) To EUR/GBP <{FX}> 07/19/2017 2:19PM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 07/19/2017 6:28AM
<{FX}> Misc FX, From Soup To Nuts, The YEN... To CNH, ZAR and KRW, To USD/RUR <{FX}> 07/18/2017 3:47PM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Update: S&P (UNCH) - Fixed Income (Tightening Risk Hatches, TY & DB Short Side Increasingly UNcomfortable / 'Trans Atlantic' -65 Narrower To TAG's MT 170 / 160 Target) - FX Coming (Whoa, YEN 'A Pant Load' ;-) <[MMM]> 07/18/2017 12:49PM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Update: Equities (S&P Maturing / High Ag 2475 / 2500 - Nikkei !CAUTION / NEUTRAL! 18250+- Value NT) - FX (YEN aka House Of Pain, USD/JPY NEUTRAL 8 Days) <[MMM]> 07/17/2017 1:23PM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 07/17/2017 6:49AM
<{BUND}> SHORT DBU7 (DE10YYields Higher), Both Tactical (Reload) & Strategic, WE LOWER ALL PROTECTIVE STOPS to 161.92+ W/ Bids-To-Cover At 'X'? <{BUND}> 07/14/2017 11:21AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Brief: TAG's Reducing Risk Overall As USD/YEN Pivot Gives Way, FV Overlaps, TYU7 Fails To Break Below 125-06+-1<[MMM]> 07/14/2017 10:21AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 07/14/2017 5:38AM
<{§}> FX Miscellaenous: USD/CNH (Overview, Top > Down, Steady As She Goes) - USD/YEN (Testing 112.95 / 112.45 Micro Pivot, Holds Higher > 116+-50?) - EUR/USD (TAG's Even-Handed, We'll Play Decent Set-Ups, Up Or Down <{§}> 07/13/2017 12:59PM
"Vox Populi" - The Voice of the People

TAG 'fav' album 'Uprising' by Bob Marley & The Wailers


Detach from the outcome ~  Relinquish your rigid attachment to a specific result and live in the wisdom of uncertainty. Attachment is based on fear and insecurity, while detachment is based on the unquestioning belief in the power of your true Self. Intend for everything to work out as it should, then let go and allow opportunities and openings to come your way.
A TAG favorite ~ La Desiderata ~

Go placidly amidst the noise and haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence. As far as possible without surrender be on good terms with all persons. Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.

Avoid loud and aggressive persons, they are vexatious to the spirit. If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain or bitter; for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.

Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans. Keep interested in your own career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.

Exercise caution in your business affairs; for the world is full of trickery. But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals; and everywhere life is full of heroism.

Be yourself. Especially, do not feign affection. Neither be cynical about love; for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment it is as perennial as the grass.

Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth. Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.

Beyond a wholesome discipline, be gentle with yourself. You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here.

And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be, and whatever your labours and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life keep peace with your soul. With all its shams, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful.

Strive to be happy.


Socionomics - Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society's mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the OPPOSITE: that social mood determines the character of social events. The events of history - such as investment booms ands busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war - are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Soconomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society's aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand...

To survive, we need a temperate client to live within. DEFLATION or INFLATION can kill an economy. Empires do not die by HYPERINFLATION – that is reserved for the fringe. When an empire dies, it historically has ALWAYS been by DEFLATION. How. Real wealth is driven from the ABOVEGROUND economy into the UNDERGROUND economy where it is hoarded and tucked away. This is why we find hoards of Roman coins. This reduces the VELOCITY of money and commerce is reduced. This is ALWAYS AND WITHOUT EXCEPTION how empires die. This is why there was scrip issued in the United States during the Great Depression. The VELOCITY of money came to a halt. The British Empire did not die of HYPERINFLATION. The pound collapsed in value. It did not inflate into oblivion. The British Empire simply rolled over and died. The decline of the sterling silver penny of England was no different a path than the decline and fall of Rome. The United States will follow the same path - Martin Armstrong

“Capitalism was an economic system in which the private sector drove the economic process through saving, capital accumulation, and investment. The government’s role was very limited. The United States has not had that kind of economic system for decades… Almost all the major industries are subsidized in one way or the other by the government and almost half the households receive some kind of government assistance… the economic system is no longer driven by savings and investment. Instead, it is driven by borrowing and consumption. This is not capitalism. Market forces no longer drive the economy. The current system is government- directed, but not planned… deficit spending and fiat money have allowed the government to satisfy all those competing demands for more than a generation.”– Richard Dunca

So it is with monetary debasement, as Keynes understood deeply (so deeply, in fact, that it?s ironic so many of today's crude Keynesians support QE so enthusiastically). In 1921 he said:

By a continuing process of inflation, Governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some …. Those to whom the system brings windfalls …. become “profiteers” who are the object of the hatred … the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery .. Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose

Hayek has made the difference between the effects of deflation and inflation crystal-clear: “… but it is not that certain that in the long run deflation is more harmful than inflation. Because moderate inflation is always pleasant as and when it is happening, whereas deflation is direct and painful. There is no need to take precaution against a situation whose unpleasant effects can be felt immediately and sharply; however, precaution is necessary for a measure that is immediately pleasant or helps alleviate problems but that entails a much more substantial damage which can only be felt later. The difference is that in case of inflation, the pleasant surprise comes first and is followed by the reaction later, whereas in case of deflation the first effect on business activity is depressive.” ~~ F.A. Hayek, “Verfassung der Freiheit” (The Constitution of Liberty), seen in (Problems of the established central bank system – free banking as alternative?), Wolf von Laer


“By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another’s, and each obeying its own law ... The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain