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Sentiment / Socionomics
The Daily Sentiment Index in %BULLS as of August 26th (Friday's Close)

Instrument % BULLS - RAW 5 DMA 10 DMA 21 DMA
T-Bonds 53.0 64.0 62.1 64.5
T-Notes 56.0 59.0 60.4 65.1
EuroDollars 60.0 60.8 61.4 60.9
S&P 69.0 76.2 76.7 76.4
Nasdaq 68.0 75.0 76.0 76.5
Vix 23.0 18.2 15.7 14.0
CHF 41.0 49.8 50.5 47.0
Euro 44.0 53.2 51.3 46.2
JPY 66.0 78.0 79.5 76.4
GBP 23.0 24.4 19.4 20.3
CAD 69.0 72.2 73.4 69.4
AUD 66.0 70.6 72.2 72.5
NZD 72.0 76.4 76.1 74.1
DXY 36.0 26.2 27.8 33.0
MXN 17.0 20.0 25.0 21.1
Crude 43.0 41.4 40.9 29.4
Heating Oil 49.0 48.0 45.2 34.3
RBOB Gasoline 41.0 40.4 40.1 32.5
Nat Gas 62.0 57.6 51.4 52.7
Gold 31.0 38.6 47.9 57.3
Silver 39.0 43.6 53.9 66.6
Platinum 55.0 62.0 67.0 77.6
Palladium 71.0 68.8 72.3 78.8
Copper 25.0 29.4 33.2 37.1
Corn 19.0 27.8 25.6 18.9
Wheat 9.0 18.8 21.7 18.1
Oats 23.0 27.4 28.4 35.7
Soybean 19.0 31.8 33.1 25.6
Soybean Oil 59.0 63.8 60.6 45.1
Soybean Meal 14.0 20.4 23.9 22.0
OJ 85.0 84.0 79.1 75.3
Coffee 58.0 59.2 54.9 58.5
Cocoa 42.0 42.8 44.2 37.2
Sugar 71.0 71.0 67.2 64.7
Lumber 65.0 69.6 72.2 75.0
Cotton 47.0 50.4 52.6 65.2
Live Cattle 6.0 12.0 21.6 32.0
Lean Hogs 29.0 23.0 23.4 16.6
CRB Index 35.0 38.2 39.3 32.4
Nikkei 78.0 76.4 78.9 78.4
The contrary investor studies crowd behavior in the stock market and aims to profit from particular conditions where investors act on their emotions rather than reason. Such extremes of fear and greed are often seen at major market turning points, providing the astute contrarian with opportunities to both enter and exit the market. The DSI or Daily Sentiment Index is a proprietary sentiment indicator from MBH Commodities in Chicago. The DSI shouldn’t be used as the start and end of a trading plan; Market sentiment is a component to a trade set-up / program. In other words, it is not a direct nor specific call to action but rather a sentiment based indicator that alerts traders to potential action - a timing trigger.
What's New
<{§}> Crude Oil Brief (Past Week+-, Short $50+ To Long / Flat $47.85 / $47.00, Back To Short $49.50+-25¢ w $50.59+ Sloss) <{§}> 08/26/2016 11:14AM
<[MMM]> Pre / Post 'Jackson Hole' 'MMM' Update: S&P (Levels In Tiring / Divergent 5th) - Fixed Inc (TYU USU 5s30s ) - FX (DXY - EURO) <[MMM]> 08/26/2016 10:18AM
<{§}> 'FX' aka 'The Land Of Opportunity' Update (Crude & Gold Brief) From MXN El Diablo to BRL to KRW / SGD aka The Pant Load / CNH (more EM tomorrow) <{§}> 08/25/2016 2:53PM
<{§}> 'MMM' Micro Term / Briefly Speaking: DXY (57.6% EURO, ABOVE DXY 94.95 NO Triangle) - Crude Oil (Initial Downwside Target Tested) - TYU6 (Pivot 'In-Play')<{§}> 08/25/2016 10:05AM
<{§}> 'FX' aka The Land Of Opportunity (Patience): Miscellaneous Foreign Exchange, Mostly 'Majors' In Today's FX Piece <{§}> 08/24/2016 1:24PM
{‡} European Equity Indices Nano/Micro-Term {‡} 08/24/2016 7:17AM
<{MMM}> 'MMM' Brief: 'Crude' ('CLZ6' To Intial Target) - 'TYU6' (Pivot Holds = Short-Covering) - US5s30s Curve (NEW 'Flats' Towards Profit-Taking Zone) - 'DBU6' / 'JGBU6' (Sell Levels) <{MMM}> 08/23/2016 10:52AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term - How Low? {‡} 08/23/2016 7:01AM
<{§}> FX Aka Foreign Exchange Aka The Land Of Opportunity (?): Straight USD Trade Is Difficult (YEN & EURO Holding USD/DM Hostage?) - GBP (NT Weakness? Sure, MT to LT 'NOT' For TAG) <{§}> 08/22/2016 1:07PM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market: S&P / Nikkei (S&P Steady / 5-Waves Down Nikkei) - TYU6 (Pivot Working Well, Do Not Assume) - Crude Oil (-$1.50, We Like NT Lower) - Gold (UNCHANGED) <[MMM]> 08/22/2016 11:11AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 08/22/2016 7:55AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Brief: S&P / Nikkei - Fixed Income (TYU6 Pivot 131-29 / 131-19 Divides 129+-1/2 Point & 134+-1/2 Point) Gold (Tightening Parameters) Crude Oil (NEW Tactical Short W TIGHT Sloss, 1st 'Go') - FX (We Wait Watch) <[MMM]> 08/19/2016 10:18AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Brief: S&P (-25 From TAG's 2193+-3. And Now?) - Fixed Income (TYU Pivot 131-29 / 131-19 Tested / Holding. Bears Below, OR 134-04 / 134-21) - Gold (TIGHTer Parameters. Clues Too?) - Crude Oil (Close To Bear Risk Level) <[MMM]> 08/18/2016 12:43PM
<[MMM}> Major Macro Market Brief: FX (Difficult) & Spot Gold (Tight NT Parameters) <[MMM}> 08/17/2016 12:14PM
<[MMM]> Crude Oil -$12 On Cue To +$7 On Cue. Matter Either Way? What Now? Do Not Chase Higher NT <[MMM]> 08/17/2016 10:21AM
{‡} European Equity Indices Reflections on the Medium-Term {‡} 08/17/2016 6:24AM
<{§}> EURO aka EUR/USD aka The Pick-Pocket : Despite ~Nasty~ 17 Months Sideways / -0- / Zip, TAG Prefers NT 1.0725+-1 EUR Test Against 1.1426* RISK <{§}> 08/16/2016 4:09PM
<{%}> Fixed Income Update: TAG Likes G-3 Yields Higher, NOW Primary Focus, See -10 'TY' Points In 1-Year (Also 'US', 'JGB' and 'DB') - US5s30s Curve (1/3rd Core SHORT / FLAT, TAG Looks To Cover) <{%}> 08/16/2016 3:38PM
{‡} European Equity Indices Short-Term {‡} 08/16/2016 7:28AM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Update: Equities (S&P - Nikkei - DAX) - We Think The Larger Global Equity Theme / 'Rotation' Is / Will Be? ! IMPORTANT ! Also 'EEM' <[MMM]> 08/15/2016 1:59PM
<[MMM]> Major Macro Market Update: Post NFP / Pre TAG Closing 100% Next Week (Unless Emergency !?^&!?$#(!?) <[MMM]> 08/05/2016 11:44AM
"Vox Populi" - The Voice of the People

~ Sometimes You Just Got To Wait ~ Arnold Rothstein 'Empire' ~


Detach from the outcome ~  Relinquish your rigid attachment to a specific result and live in the wisdom of uncertainty. Attachment is based on fear and insecurity, while detachment is based on the unquestioning belief in the power of your true Self. Intend for everything to work out as it should, then let go and allow opportunities and openings to come your way.


Socionomics (TAG followers for 5+ years) - Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society's mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the OPPOSITE: that social mood determines the character of social events. The events of history - such as investment booms ands busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war - are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Soconomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society's aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand...

To survive, we need a temperate client to live within. DEFLATION or INFLATION can kill an economy. Empires do not die by HYPERINFLATION – that is reserved for the fringe. When an empire dies, it historically has ALWAYS been by DEFLATION. How. Real wealth is driven from the ABOVEGROUND economy into the UNDERGROUND economy where it is hoarded and tucked away. This is why we find hoards of Roman coins. This reduces the VELOCITY of money and commerce is reduced. This is ALWAYS AND WITHOUT EXCEPTION how empires die. This is why there was scrip issued in the United States during the Great Depression. The VELOCITY of money came to a halt. The British Empire did not die of HYPERINFLATION. The pound collapsed in value. It did not inflate into oblivion. The British Empire simply rolled over and died. The decline of the sterling silver penny of England was no different a path than the decline and fall of Rome. The United States will follow the same path - Martin Armstrong

“Capitalism was an economic system in which the private sector drove the economic process through saving, capital accumulation, and investment. The government’s role was very limited. The United States has not had that kind of economic system for decades… Almost all the major industries are subsidized in one way or the other by the government and almost half the households receive some kind of government assistance… the economic system is no longer driven by savings and investment. Instead, it is driven by borrowing and consumption. This is not capitalism. Market forces no longer drive the economy. The current system is government- directed, but not planned… deficit spending and fiat money have allowed the government to satisfy all those competing demands for more than a generation.”– Richard Duncan

A TAG favorite ~ La Desiderata ~

Go placidly amidst the noise and haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence. As far as possible without surrender be on good terms with all persons. Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.

Avoid loud and aggressive persons, they are vexatious to the spirit. If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain or bitter; for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.

Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans. Keep interested in your own career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.

Exercise caution in your business affairs; for the world is full of trickery. But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals; and everywhere life is full of heroism.

Be yourself. Especially, do not feign affection. Neither be cynical about love; for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment it is as perennial as the grass.

Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth. Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.

Beyond a wholesome discipline, be gentle with yourself. You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here.

And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be, and whatever your labours and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life keep peace with your soul. With all its shams, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful.

Strive to be happy.


So it is with monetary debasement, as Keynes understood deeply (so deeply, in fact, that it?s ironic so many of today's crude Keynesians support QE so enthusiastically). In 1921 he said:

By a continuing process of inflation, Governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some …. Those to whom the system brings windfalls …. become “profiteers” who are the object of the hatred … the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery .. Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose


Hayek has made the difference between the effects of deflation and inflation crystal-clear: “… but it is not that certain that in the long run deflation is more harmful than inflation. Because moderate inflation is always pleasant as and when it is happening, whereas deflation is direct and painful. There is no need to take precaution against a situation whose unpleasant effects can be felt immediately and sharply; however, precaution is necessary for a measure that is immediately pleasant or helps alleviate problems but that entails a much more substantial damage which can only be felt later. The difference is that in case of inflation, the pleasant surprise comes first and is followed by the reaction later, whereas in case of deflation the first effect on business activity is depressive.” ~~ F.A. Hayek, “Verfassung der Freiheit” (The Constitution of Liberty), seen in (Problems of the established central bank system – free banking as alternative?), Wolf von Laer


“By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another’s, and each obeying its own law ... The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain